The Denver Broncos travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, November 30th with first place in the AFC West on the line. The Broncos won the first meeting between these teams back on September 14th with a 24-17 home victory as a 13-point favorite.
Denver (8-3) bounced back from a bad loss at St. Louis with a tough 39-36 home win over Miami last week. Kansas City (7-4) suffered an inexplicable loss to Oakland on the road by a final of 20-24 last Thursday to put an end to its five-game winning streak.
Kickoff inside Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled for 8:30 EST Sunday night with NBC providing the television coverage. If you are looking to place a wager on this game, you’ll find Denver as a 2-point favorite over Kansas City with a total set of 49.5 points.
My Early Lean: Broncos -2
The Broncos were 13-point favorites at home the first time these teams got together this season. When you factor in three points for home-field advantage, that means they should be roughly 7-point road favorites over the Chiefs in the rematch. Instead, they are currently 2-point favorites in Kansas City. That’s why I believe there is some value in backing the Broncos as such small favorites in the rematch Sunday night.
Plus, the Broncos are the better team, period. When you compare the numbers, it’s really not even close. The Broncos lead the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by a whopping 100.2 yards per game. They rank 3rd in total offense at 416.3 yards per game, and 6th in total defense at 316.1 yards per game. Despite not having the best record in the NFL, they have put up the best numbers and I would argue that they are the best team.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, have been very fortunate to own a 7-4 record this season. They rank just 17th in yardage differential, and they are actually getting outgained on the season. The Chiefs are just 23rd in the NFL in total offense at 326.6 yards per game, and 8th in total defense at 328.3 yards per game. Now, they are without star safety Eric Berry for the rest of the season after he was diagnosed with cancer last week. Berry is just another player on a long list of injuries for this Kansas City defense.
The reason I don’t give the Chiefs much of a chance in this game is because they don’t have the firepower to keep up with Peyton Manning and company. Alex Smith is a limited quarterback with limited weapons, and would need to play a perfect game to give Kansas City a chance. Smith STILL hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass to a wide receiver all season. This offense is too predictable as it relies too much on tight ends and running backs in the passing game.
Denver is 5-0 in its last five meetings with Kansas City with all five victories coming by a touchdown or more.
Denver is 5-0 in its last five meetings with Kansas City with all five victories coming by a touchdown or more. That’s another reason why I believe this line should be closer to a touchdown. The Broncos are 26-14 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Denver is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. AFC West opponents. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Kansas City.