Chiefs Broncos Odds

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This Sunday the Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) will host the Denver Broncos (9-2) in what will likely decide who wins the AFC West. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 EST at Arrowhead Stadium and will be televised locally on CBS. The Broncos won at home 27-17 just two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football and have won all three meetings in the series since Peyton Manning came to Denver. Oddsmakers currently have the Broncos listed as a 5.5-point road favorite with the total set at 48.5 points.

Why Denver Will Cover:

The Broncos come into this matchup off a devastating 31-34 overtime loss to the Patriots, where they managed to blow a 24-0 halftime lead. The key thing is to not overreact to the outcome. The conditions really made it difficult on the Broncos ability to throw the football and Belichick has had Manning’s number over the years. If anything you should expect a huge bounce back performance from Manning, who completed just 19 of 36 attempts for a season-low 150 yards. Great players rarely have to bad games in a row. Denver is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss.

Denver is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss.

While the Broncos didn’t allow a single sack in the first meeting against the Chiefs, there was a lot of concern with whether or not they would be able to hold Kansas City’s pass rush at bay in a hostile environment. That doesn’t figure to be as big of an issue with the recent injuries Kansas City suffered to outside linebackers to Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. While Hali is listed as probable, Houston isn’t expected to play. You also have to wonder just how much of factor Hali will be with a bum ankle. Without those two on the field, Philip Rivers picked apart the Chiefs secondary. If Kansas City gives Peyton Manning the same amount of time in the pocket, it’s really hard to see the Chiefs keeping this game close. The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs teams who allow 235 or more passing yards/game.

There’s a couple of systems favoring the Broncos to beat the number on Sunday. First, home underdogs who have lost two out of their three games are 25-55 (21.2%) ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 10 seasons. Second, road teams after a road game in the second half of the season where both teams scored at least 24 points are 44-19 (69.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Why Kansas City Will Cover:

The Chiefs missed out on a golden opportunity to take back control of the AFC West last week and surprisingly it was their defense that was responsible for the loss. Alex Smith and the Kansas City offense scored a season-high 38 points. While it wasn’t the outcome they wanted, you have to remember that was a difficult spot for the Chiefs, knowing how important this week’s game against Denver was going to be.

There’s a couple of strong systems favoring Kansas City in this game. Home underdogs after two or more consecutive losses against the spread are 92-48 (65.7%) ATS in the month of December since 1983. Adding to this is the fact that home teams revenging a loss against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite are 164-102 (61.7%) ATS since 1983.

The huge advantage that Kansas City has in this game is the home crowd. Arrowhead Stadium is going to be as loud as it’s been all season and the noise is going to make it difficult for Manning and his pre-snap adjustments. It’s also going to give life to their defense. Just look at the different results last year. The Chiefs held Denver to just 17-points at home and allowed 38-points on the road. Denver is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs a team with a winning home record.

Denver is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs a team with a winning home record.

Another key factor that can’t be overlooked is that the Patriots really laid out a blueprint to slowing down Manning. New England sacrificed their run defense to keep Manning from beating them. Denver rushed for 280 yards and if it wasn’t for turnovers by the Patriots early on they would have likely finished that game with fewer than 20 points.

Early Lean – Chiefs +5.5

About the Author: Steve will be the first to tell you that College Football is his passion, but he enthusiastically follows the NFL, NBA, College Hoops, and Major League Baseball.
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