2018 Buffalo Bills Season Odds & Predictions

The Buffalo Bills enter the 2018 season fresh off their first playoff appearance in 17 years. It wasn’t always pretty last season, but with a 5-2 start to the season and then a 4-2 finish, the Bills were able to break a long postseason drought behind first-year head coach Sean McDermott. 

Of course, after getting a taste of the playoffs last season, the Buffalo fan base is eager for more and expects the team to be even better this season. However, the Bills took a risk by trading away Tyrod Taylor, the quarterback who led them to the playoffs. Now the quarterback position is a point of uncertainty for Buffalo as they attempt to replicate last year’s success.

Buffalo Expected Win Total & Super Bowl Odds

The oddsmakers are beyond skeptical of Buffalo this year. The Bills are listed at +15,000 to win the Super Bowl, which is tied for the longest odds in the NFL. With no clarity at the quarterback spot, it’s easy to see why. Also, the Bills are only projected to win 6.5 games in 2018, a substantial setback from last year. Obviously, this team is capable of winning if they have the right quarterback in place. But there’s no guarantee the right quarterback is on the roster right now.

The Bills brought in A.J. McCarron while they wait for first-round pick Josh Allen to be ready. However, McCarron has never seen any extended action as a starter in the NFL, so he has much to prove. McDermott also appeared high on Nathan Peterman last season. There’s also a chance Allen can push his way into the starting lineup at some point, especially if the team struggles. In short, no one knows who will start for Buffalo from one week to the next.

In theory, the Bills still have running back LeSean McCoy to be their workhorse. The Bills were able to ride McCoy a long way last season. But with his recent off-field problems, there has to be at least some question about his future. The Bills aren’t exactly overflowing with depth behind him, so losing him would be a crushing blow.

There is also a certain level of uncertainty regarding Buffalo’s receivers. Kelvin Benjamin and Corey Coleman would be a great tandem if both can remain healthy. However, both players have had a problem with that in the past. Zay Jones had a disappointing rookie campaign that was plagued by drops. Meanwhile, Andre Holmes and Rod Streater aren’t exactly exciting names.

Last but not least, there are concerns about Buffalo’s offensive line. Both Eric Wood and Richie Incognito retired. The team also traded Cordy Glenn, creating some big holes up front. Jordan Mills provides some stability at right tackle with Russell Bodine stepping in for Wood as a reliable center. But the rest of the line is largely unproven.

A year ago, Buffalo’s defense was good enough to carry them at times and could be even better this year. Free agent addition Star Lotulelei will play alongside longtime fan favorite Kyle Williams at defensive tackle with Adolphus Washington and first-round pick Harrison Phillips behind them. Trent Murphy also joins the contingent of pass rushers that includes Jerry Hughes and Shaq Lawson. Of course, Hughes and Lawson had only four sacks each last year, so both need more production in 2018.

At linebacker, veteran Lorenzo Alexander will be joined by first-round pick Tremaine Edmunds, who the team believes will become one of the best middle linebackers in the NFL. The secondary could be even better too. Vontae Davis will start opposite rising star Tre’Davious White to give the Bills two high-level cornerbacks. The safety tandem of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer is also vastly underrated and help the Bills to complete a talented secondary.

Defensively, the Bills should be just fine this year. In fact, they are potentially a top-10 defensive team. However, the offense is littered with questions. It’d be one thing if the quarterback position was the only question. Unfortunately for the Bills, the questions on offense extend far beyond who’s taking the snaps. Without assurance that McCoy can carry them for 16 games, it could be a challenge for the Bills to get back to the playoffs this year.

Bills Schedule & Game-by-Game Predictions

Date Opponent Time
Sep 9 @ Baltimore Ravens 1:00 PM
Sep 16 Los Angeles Chargers 1:00 PM
Sep 23 @ Minnesota Vikings 1:00 PM
Sep 30 @ Green Bay Packers 1:00 PM
Oct 7 Tennessee Titans 1:00 PM
Oct 14 @ Houston Texans 1:00 PM
Oct 21 @ Indianapolis Colts 1:00 PM
Oct 29 New England Patriots 8:15 PM
Nov 4 Chicago Bears 1:00 PM
Nov 11 @ New York Jets 1:00 PM
Nov 25 Jacksonville Jaguars 1:00 PM
Dec 2 @ Miami Dolphins 1:00 PM
Dec 9 New York Jets 1:00 PM
Dec 16 Detroit Lions 1:00 PM
Dec 23 @ New England Patriots 1:00 PM
Dec 30 Miami Dolphins 1:00 PM

The Bills begin the season with a difficult set of road games, playing five of their first same games away from home. This will ease up slightly after that, but they need to hold their own early against that schedule or else their season could spiral out of control fast.

Week 1: at Ravens – Loss

No matter what, the Bills will have a fairly inexperienced quarterback starting Week 1. Whether it’s McCarron or someone else, the Baltimore defense gets the job done.

Week 2: vs Chargers – Win

The Chargers won’t be able to stop McCoy and the Buffalo rushing attack. Meanwhile, their offense is just a little out of sync with the early game on the east coast. This should be a game the Bills win easily.

Week 3: at Vikings – Loss

Against the Minnesota defense on the road, the Bills are in serious danger of getting shutout in this game. Winning would be a fantasy.

Week 4: at Packers – Loss

Aaron Rodgers finds a groove at home, and once that happens, not even the Buffalo defense is able to stop him.

Week 5: vs Titans – Win

At home, the Buffalo defense should have a strong outing, getting the better of Marcus Mariota. Even if the offense doesn’t provide much, the Bills should escape with a win.

Week 6: at Texans – Loss

The Buffalo defense is good, but they may have met their match with Deshaun Watson. He will out-play whoever starts at quarterback for the Bills this week.

Week 7: at Colts – Win

The Bills are able to create a strong pass rush and put enough pressure on Andrew Luck to throw him off his game and pick up a road win.

Week 8: vs Patriots – Loss

There will be all kinds of hype for the Bills hosting a Monday night game against the Patriots. However, the Bills will be a little too hyped up for this game. Tom Brady will look as sharp as ever, as the Patriots win in convincing fashion.

Week 9: vs Bears – Win

The Buffalo offense continues to lack consistency, but the same can be said of the Chicago offense. The Bills force Mitch Trubisky into a couple turnovers that help them come out on top in an ugly game.

Week 10: at Jets – Loss

This feels like a game the Bills should win, but they tend to struggle when they go to the Meadowlands, even when the Jets are bad.

Week 11: Bye

Week 12: vs Jaguars – Loss

Bills fans can’t wait to take down former coach Doug Marrone, especially after the playoff loss to the Jaguars last season. However, Jacksonville’s defense proves to be too much, as Marrone is victorious in his return to Buffalo. 

Week 13: at Dolphins – Loss

This is a close game, but the Bills just can’t make enough plays in the 4th quarter to secure a win. Much of the blame goes to a sluggish offensive line.

Week 14: vs Jets – Win

No one was happy about losing to the Jets earlier in the season. This time around, the Bills impose themselves on a much weaker team, beating the Jets by a wide margin.

Week 15: vs Lions – Win

The weather ends up playing a big factor in this game. Matthew Stafford doesn’t look comfortable in the cold, nor does he look comfortable with the Bills blitzing him from every direction. The Buffalo defense carries the team to victory in this one.

Week 16: at Patriots – Loss

Trips to New England rarely end well for the Bills, and this one is no different. Buffalo’s defense hangs in there for a half, but they can’t contain Brady for 60 minutes.

Week 17: vs Dolphins – Win

Once again, the cold weather swings a game in Buffalo’s favor. As long as McCoy is still playing, the Bills run right over the Dolphins without much trouble to avoid a 10-loss season.

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