The Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots on Sunday, November 29 in one of the most anticipated games in the AFC this season. The home team has won five straight meetings in this series, including a 43-21 victory by the Patriots last year.
New England (10-0, 4-0 away) remained one of two unbeaten teams left in the NFL with its 20-13 home win over the Buffalo Bills last week. The Patriots won this one with defense, limiting the Bills to just one touchdown and two field goals in the win. Tom Brady threw for 277 yards with one touchdown and one pick to lead the offense.
Denver (8-2, 3-1 home) picked up a nice 17-15 road win at Chicago last week in its first game without Peyton Manning. The Broncos leaned on their running game with 170 yards on the ground, and Brock Osweiler was very efficient. He completed 20 of 27 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns in the win.
Kickoff inside Sports Authority Field at Mile High is set for 8:25 EST Sunday night with NBC providing the television coverage. Taking a look at the odds in Las Vegas, I find New England as a 3-point favorite over Denver with a total set of 43.5 points.
My Early Lean: Broncos +3
The New England Patriots are going to be hard-pressed to keep their unbeaten streak going with all of the injuries they are dealing with right now on offense. They will likely be missing three of their four best weapons in this game against the Denver Broncos, and they shouldn’t be favored as a result.
Already without top target Julian Edelman due to a broken foot, the Patriots lost Danny Amendole (knee) and Aaron Dobson (ankle) during their win over the Bills last week. Neither of those two are expected to play. Passing-down back Dion Lewis also suffered a torn ACL in Week 9 and won’t be returning this season. The chips are simply stacked against Tom Brady and company now.
Now he’ll be up against the best defense in the NFL in the Broncos, who rank 1st with 34 sacks while allowing league-lows of eight touchdown passes and 190.6 passing yards per game.
Brady was under more pressure last week against the Bills than he has been all season. In fact, he faced pressure on 45 percent of his dropbacks. Now he’ll be up against the best defense in the NFL in the Broncos, who rank 1st with 34 sacks while allowing league-lows of eight touchdown passes and 190.6 passing yards per game. I believe the Broncos’ defense is the reason they are going to win this game.
But I’ve also been impressed with what I’ve seen from Brock Osweiler. He led a couple of touchdown drives late in the loss to Kansas City two weeks ago. Then, in his first career start last week, he looked like he’d been there before. Osweiler completed 20 of 27 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns without an interception in the 17-15 road win over the Bears. The Broncos also got their ground game going, rushing for 170 yards in the win.
Home-field advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Denver is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game. We saw what this Broncos’ defense did to Aaron Rodgers a few weeks back, limiting him to 77 passing yards. Look for this stop unit to come up big once again and to lead Denver to a huge home win.
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