Two teams jockeying for position inside the Mountain West will get together on Friday night as the Boise State Broncos host the Colorado State Rams. Kickoff is set for 9:00 EST on Friday, October 19, at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. The game will be available to watch on ESPN2.
Boise State has opened the week as 24-point favorites at home. Click here to check out a full list of this week’s college football odds.
Colorado State enters this game 3-4 overall but 2-1 in conference play with everything to play for this year. The Rams were victimized by a difficult schedule early in the season, dropping games to an upstart Hawaii team, as well as power-conference foes Colorado and Florida, to start the season 1-3.
Of course, the Rams also lost a game to FCS opponent Illinois State. However, CSU has back-to-back wins over San Jose State and New Mexico the past two weeks to get back on track. If they can keep winning, the Rams still have a chance to win the Mountain division and reach the Mountain West Championship Game. They also need three wins in their final five games to become bowl eligible, which is their top priority right now.
Boise State is in a similar position in that they are 2-1 in conference play. The Mountain division has four teams that have one or fewer losses in Mountain West play, so both the Rams and Broncos have little margin for error. A loss by either team would essentially knock them out of contention for a conference title.
The difference between these teams is that Boise State is 4-2 overall, so they only need two wins in their final six games to clinch a bowl spot. The Broncos would also like to push their way back into the top-25. Boise State was ranked earlier in the season but fell out after losing to Oklahoma State. If they can string some wins together, the Broncos could get back into the rankings.
The Broncos also have a perfect record against Colorado State to keep intact. Since Boise State joined the Mountain West in 2011, they’ve won all seven meetings with the Rams. Colorado State is no doubt eager to end that losing streak.
Colorado State is not the team I thought they’d be at the start of the season. They’ve had some distressing losses this season, both in the teams they’ve lost to and the margins by which they’ve lost. However, this line seems far too big for my liking. With a lot on the line, I think the Rams will be able to keep this game within 24 points. I’ll lean toward Colorado State to beat the spread.
Despite CSU’s many flaws, they have one incredible strength in quarterback K.J. Carta-Samuels. As a graduate transfer, he gets more and more comfortable with his teammates every week, meaning his performance should improve with each game. His accuracy has been off at times, but he’s done a fine job of limiting his turnovers and he’s always a threat to put up 300-plus yards passing in a single game. He also has two outstanding receivers in Preston Williams and Olabisi Johnson who are capable of making plays despite CSU lacking a competent rushing attack.
To be fair, Boise State is a solid defensive team, giving up less than 22 points per game on the season. However, they’ve been vulnerable at times against teams with good quarterbacks. Last week against Nevada, the Broncos gave up over 300 yards passing and 27 points in a 31-27 win over a team with a good passing attack. That result tells me that Carta-Samuels and the Colorado State passing attack could have similar success against the Boise State defense this week.
If the Broncos are going to cover such a large spread, they’re going to need one of their best offensive performances of the season. Quarterback Brett Rypien gives them a chance to do that, as he remains one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. The caveat is that he has four touchdowns and five interceptions in conference play, so teams that have faced him over the years are having some success slowing him down. The Broncos are also lacking a strong running game, as there’s no depth behind running back Alexander Mattison, who’s averaging less than four yards per carry.
Of course, it’s worth noting that Colorado State has one of the worst defenses in the country. The Rams are giving up over 35 points per game on the year. However, they’ve faced three power-conference teams, which skews those numbers a little. They also held New Mexico to just 18 points last week, which is impressive since the Lobos are scoring 39 points per game.
Ultimately, I expect Colorado State to score enough points with their passing attack and provide enough resistance defensively to beat the spread. I don’t think the Rams are a great candidate to pull off the upset. However, they’re too good to roll over and get blown out by Boise State. I’ll gladly lean toward Colorado State to beat the 24-point spread.