After breaking into the top-25, the Arizona State Sun Devils will try to remain perfect when they play host to the Colorado Buffaloes this weekend. Kickoff is at 10:00 EST on Saturday, September 21 at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Arizona. Fans can watch the game on the Pac-12 Network.
According to our Week 4 college football odds, the Sun Devils are 7.5-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is set at 67.5 points.
Arizona State entered the top-25 this week following last week’s 10-7 win at Michigan State. The Sun Devils got a little fortunate at the end of the game when Michigan State had the game-tying field goal wiped out by a penalty. But the ASU offense put a sluggish day behind them and put together a scoring drive in crunch time, which was impressive to see.
It was actually the second straight year the Sun Devils beat Michigan State. Last year’s win over the Spartans ended up helping ASU get to a bowl game. They can only hope this win will also be a launching pad to bigger things. However, Arizona State is lined up to play three straight ranked teams starting next week, so it’s critical that they win their conference opener against Colorado.
Meanwhile, Colorado is trying to bounce back from last week’s overtime loss to Air Force. The Buffaloes started the year brightly, beating Colorado State by a comfortable margin and then stealing an overtime win against rival Nebraska. But after erasing a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter last week, the Buffs lost in overtime.
First-year coach Mel Tucker now has the task of rallying his team for the start of Pac-12 play. Colorado would love to reach a bowl game this year. However, their game against Arizona State is the first of five games the Buffs play against ranked teams the rest of the season. That doesn’t include Colorado’s games with conference heavyweights USC and Stanford, so the Buffs have their work cut out for them.
The good news for Colorado is that they managed to beat Arizona State last year, surviving a 28-21 game on their home field. Of course, that’s just one of two wins the Buffs have against the Sun Devils since they joined the Pac-12 in 2011. The Buffaloes are also winless in their five previous visits to Tempe.
Despite the win over Michigan State last week, I’m not yet sold on Arizona State. They struggled to maintain that momentum after beating MSU last year, so I remain skeptical. Plus, the Sun Devils aren’t likely to win a lot of games by a comfortable margin. Finally, I’m not down on Colorado after last week’s loss. I think there’s a lot to like about the Buffs. I’m not going to predict an upset, but I’d be surprised if ASU wins by more than a touchdown. I’ll lean toward Colorado to beat the spread.
Defensively, it’s hard not to be impressed by Herm Edwards and the Sun Devils. They’ve given up exactly seven points in all three of their games, regardless of whether they played Sacramento State or Michigan State. I don’t think that will continue this week, but I will give credit to Arizona State for their defense.
The problem for the Sun Devils is that Colorado is a far better offensive team than the three other teams they’ve played this year. I think Steven Montez is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the Pac-12. Also, Laviska Shenault Jr. is one of the league’s most dangerous playmakers. Montez can sling it, and even a strong ASU defense will be troubled by Shenault. The only variable is if running backs Jaren Mangham and Alex Fontenot can give the Colorado offense a little more balance. If so, it sets up Montez taking shots down the field, specifically to Shenault.
The other issue I have with the Sun Devils is their offense, which is led by true freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels. I can forgive only scoring 10 points against Michigan State because the Spartans are excellent defensively. But Arizona State only scored 19 points against Sacramento State, an FCS team, the week before that. Even 30 points against Kent State isn’t all that impressive.
Arizona State can’t yet rely on Daniels to win games with his arm. On top of that, running back Eno Benjamin is having trouble getting going, averaging less than four yards per carry. That has to change if the Sun Devils want to get their offense clicking. To be fair, the Colorado defense is nothing special. But if the ASU offense can’t create explosive plays, the Buffs will find ways to get stops.
In the end, I think Arizona State will prevail at home, but Colorado isn’t going to make it easy. The Buffaloes are bound to spring a few big plays and make this an interesting game. The Sun Devils have a viable offense, but it’s not good enough to make me feel comfortable eating more than a touchdown. I’ll like Colorado to beat the spread, even in a loss.