Up to no. 15 in the polls, the California Golden Bears will look to stay undefeated when they play host to the Arizona State Sun Devils. Game time is at 10:30 EST on Friday, September 27 at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, California. The whole nation will get a chance to watch the Bears and the Sun Devils on ESPN.
According to the Week 5 college football odds, the Golden Bears are 5-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is listed at 40.5 points.
Through four weeks, Cal has been one of the biggest stories in the Pac-12, not to mention one of the biggest surprises in the country. The Golden Bears are no fluke either. They may not be winning in blowout fashion, but Cal has taken down both Washington and Ole Miss, beating both on the road nonetheless on their way to being 4-0 early in the year.
That being said, the Bears now have to cope with a little bit of success without it going to their head. That’s not always easy for a program that hasn’t experienced a lot of success in the past. The Bears also face a challenging schedule ahead, including a trip to Pac-12 North favorites Oregon next weekend. Cal has to be sure they aren’t looking ahead to their showdown with the Ducks before taking care of business against the Sun Devils.
Of course, Arizona State was almost 4-0 and the talk of the Pac-12. After the Sun Devils knocked off Michigan State for the second straight year, they stumbled last week against Colorado, ultimately losing a back-and-forth affair 34-31 at home.
That loss knocked Arizona State out of the top-25 and put them behind the 8-ball in the Pac-12 South standings. However, the season is far from over for the 3-1 Sun Devils. They get another chance to knock off a ranked team on the road this week. With a win, ASU can get back in the mix inside the Pac-12 South. But a loss could send the Sun Devils reeling, as they still have three more ranked teams on their schedule after playing Cal.
This will be the first meeting between Cal and Arizona State since 2016. The Sun Devils won that game in the desert 51-41. However, neither Justin Wilcox or Herm Edwards was around for that game, as both of these programs have a fresh slate.
For the record, I’m not doubting Cal with this pick. I think the Golden Bears have the kind of defense that can give them a legitimate chance to win the Pac-12 North. However, I’m not sure I trust their offense enough to eat the points. Cal’s three wins over FBS opponents this season have come by a combined 15 points. I think the Golden Bears will win, but probably not by a wide margin. Plus, I think ASU is good enough to force a close game, so I’ll take the Sun Devils and the points.
I always want to give credit where credit is due. Last week, Cal quarterback Chase Garbers played one of the best games of his career. He threw for over 350 yards and four touchdowns on the road against an SEC team. Even if you want to debate the merits of the Ole Miss defense, that’s impressive. However, I’m just not sure it’s a sign of things to come. He didn’t do much through the air against Washington and wasn’t good at all the previous week against North Texas. I just can’t assume that Garbers and the Cal offense can keep it up this week.
Without an explosive offense, covering more than a field goal becomes a sketchy proposition. Obviously, it’s tough to believe in the Arizona State defense after they gave up 34 points to Colorado last week. But the Colorado offense has the kind of explosiveness that Cal often lacks. The ASU defense was able to handle some less-potent offensive teams earlier in the season. That should be a good indication that Arizona State can limit the Golden Bears to a reasonable point total, especially since the Cal rushing attack has been a little inconsistent this year.
Of course, the Cal defense is good enough to stifle just about any team they face. The Golden Bears could possibly limit Arizona State to 10 points or less, which makes covering the 5-point spread a lot more realistic. After all, the Sun Devils were held to just 10 points by a stout Michigan State defense a couple of weeks ago, even though they won the game.
But I’ll give the ASU offense a little credit. True freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels started to settle in last week. He’s also thrown just one interception this season, which is impressive for a freshman. The Sun Devils also have an experienced running back in Eno Benjamin who they can ride. Remember, Cal isn’t likely to run away with the game, so the Sun Devils probably won’t have to abandon the run. Plus, the Bears gave up a couple of big running plays last week against Ole Miss, so I can’t discount Benjamin doing the same.
Ultimately, I like Cal to pull out a close win. But between an inconsistent offense and the fact that the Bears are now dealing with the expectations that come with being ranked, I think this will be a tough game for them. I simply have too many concerns to eat the points, so I’ll take my chances with Arizona State as a road underdog.