LSU Alabama Odds
The No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0, 5-0 SEC) host the No. 13 LSU Tigers (7-2, 3-2 SEC) on Saturday, November 9 in one of the biggest Southeastern Conference games of the season. These teams have a huge rivalry and have split each of the last four meetings, including a thrilling 21-17 road victory in the final seconds by the Crimson Tide in 2012.
This SEC showdown will be natioanlly televised on CBS with kickoff at Bryant-Denny Stadium scheduled for 7:00 EST Saturday night. Oddsmakers in Las Vegas have installed Alabama as a 12.5-point favorite over LSU with a total set of 55 points.
Why Alabama Covers
The Crimson Tide have been rolling the opposition all season long and are clearly deserving of the No. 1 ranking in the country. Seven of their eight wins have come by 25 or more points. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 31.5 points per game on the year. They clearly know what is at stake and will not be overlooking LSU Saturday.
Alabama is putting up 41.2 points and 462.7 yards per game to rank 35th in the country in total offense. A.J. McCarron is completing 69.4 percent of his passes for 1,862 yards with 16 touchdowns and three interceptions. T.J. Yeldon has rushed for 729 yards and 10 touchdowns. Kenyan Drake has proven to be a nice compliment to Yeldon, rushing for 491 yards and seven scores while averaging 7.8 per carry.
The edge defensively clearly goes to the Crimson Tide in this one. They are giving up just 9.7 points and 280.9 yards per game to rank 5th in the country in total defense. LSU is allowing 21.9 points and 351.7 yards per game as it has taken a step back on this side of the ball in 2013. It allowed 44 points to Georgia, 26 to Mississippi State and 27 to Ole Miss in each of its last three road games. It also gave up 27 points to a terrible TCU offense on a neutral field.
Alabama is 8-1 against the spread after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last three seasons. LSU is 2-6 against the spread in its last nine games following a S.U. win. The Tigers are 0-4-1 against the number in their last five games following an ATS loss. LSU is 0-5 against the number in its last five games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.
Why LSU Covers
While the Tigers haven’t been as stout defensively as they have in years past, they are still have one of the best stop units in the country. They rank 21st in the FBS in total defense. They have made up for it on the other side of the football, scoring 40.2 points and averaging 480.0 yards per game to rank 23rd in total offense. I would argue that the Tigers are better on this side of the football than Alabama with their versatility.
Zach Mettenberger has been dominant, completing 65.4 percent of his passes for 2,492 yards with 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has arguably the best receiving due in the country in Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, who have combined for 106 receptions, 1,891 receptions yards and 16 touchdowns. Jeremy Hill has rushed for 922 yards and 12 scores while averaging 7.2 per carry despite missing some action early this season.
This is clearly a revenge game for LSU, which gave up a 17-14 lead with 51 seconds left at home last year to lose to Alabama 17-21. It was the third time in the last four meetings that this rivalry has been decided by four points or less, with LSU winning two of them. In fact, six of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by nine points or fewer. The road team is 13-4-1 against the spread in the last 18 meetings. LSU is 6-1-1 against the number in its last eight visits to Alabama.
In fact, six of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by nine points or fewer. The road team is 13-4-1 against the spread in the last 18 meetings. LSU is 6-1-1 against the number in its last eight visits to Alabama.
Plays on road underdogs (LSU) – with an incredible offense – averaging 450 or more total yards/game, after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 36-8 (81.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. LSU is 31-14 against the spread in its last 45 road games versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or less rushing yards per game. The Tigers are 4-0 against the number in their last four games following a bye week. Alabama is 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 games following a bye.
My Early Lean: LSU +12.5