49ers Seahawks Odds
The San Francisco 49ers are set to do battle with the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, January 19 for the right to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The 49ers and Seahawks were each popular picks to win the Super Bowl heading into the season, so this match-up doesn’t come as a surprise to most.
The home team has won each of the last four meetings between these teams. Kickoff at CenturyLink Field is scheduled for 6:30 EST Sunday night. If you are interested in wagering on this contest, then you will be working with a line of Seattle -3.5 over San Francisco and a total set of 39.5 points.
Why Seattle Covers
The Seahawks have had the best home-field advantage in the league over the past couple of years. Indeed, they have only lost one home game in 17 tries over the past two seasons. They have compiled an 8-1 record at home this year, outscoring their opponents 28.4 to 13.9 in the process, or by an average of 14.5 points per game. You can bet that CenturyLink Field will probably be the loudest it has ever been when the 49ers visit for the NFC Championship.
Home-field advantage has been absolutely huge in this series to say the least. In fact, the home team has won four straight and nine of the last 10 meetings between the 49ers and Seahawks. Seattle has absolutely destroyed San Francisco in its last two home meetings. It won 42-13 at home in 2012, while also winning 29-3 at home on September 15. The Seahawks held Colin Kaepernick to 13 of 28 passing for 127 yards and three interceptions in that earlier contest this season.
Seattle has been the better team on both sides of the football this season. It is averaging 25.9 points and 335.4 yards per game offensively, while San Francisco is averaging 25.1 points and 326.4 yards per game. The Seahawks rank 1st in the league in scoring and total defense, giving up just 14.5 points and 281.0 yards per game. They have allow 20 or fewer points in each of their last eight games overall, surrendering an average of 12.1 points per game over this span.
The Seahawks are 8-1 ATS versus good rushing teams who average 130 or more rushing yards per game over the last three seasons. Seattle is also 8-1 ATS versus good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two years. The Seahawks are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 home games. Seattle is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. Seattle is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with San Francisco. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Why San Francisco Covers
The 49ers have had to go on a much more difficult path to reach the NFC Championship Game. Despite winning 12 games during the regular season, they had to go on the road in the first two rounds. After dominating Green Bay in the box score but only winning 23-20 in the Wild Card Round, they continued their momentum with a 23-10 win at Carolina in the Divisional Round.
San Francisco has now made the NFC Championship Game for a third consecutive season in the first three years under Jim Harbaugh. It is more prepared to handle the pressure of this game than Seattle, which hasn’t made much noise in the playoffs in recent year. The Seahawks were really dominated in the box score by New Orleans. They were outgained 277-409 by the Saints, which showed that their defense is certainly vulnerable.
This is a much more potent San Francisco offense than the one that it fielded for the first half of the season. Michael Crabtree returned from a torn ACL seven games ago, and he opens things up for fellow playmakers Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore. Because of Crabtree’s return, it comes as no surprise that the 49ers have the longest winning streak going in the NFL having won eight straight games coming in.
There’s no question that the 49ers have the better players offensively, while the defenses are closely matched, too. San Francisco is yielding just 16.8 points and 315.4 yards per game this season. It has given up 24 or less points in 15 straight games, including 20 or fewer in 13 of those. Both teams love to run the football, and the 49ers have been better against the run. They are only giving up 96 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.
San Francisco is 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 75% over the last three seasons. The 49ers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games overall. San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The 49ers have played their best football on the road this year, winning eight of 10 games away from home.
San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
My Early Lean: 49ers +3.5