The San Francisco 49ers visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, December 14th for a NFC West rivalry game. The Seahawks have won four of the past five meetings in this series, including a 19-3 road win two weeks ago on Thanksgiving Day.
Seattle (9-4) won for a sixth time in seven games with a dominant 24-14 road win at Philadelphia last Sunday. San Francisco (7-6) suffered a crushing 13-24 road loss at Oakland last week to really hurt its chances of making the playoffs.
This game is set to kick off at 4:25 EST Sunday afternoon inside CenturyLink Field with FOX providing the television coverage. Oddsmakers in Las Vegas have set a line of Seattle -10 over San Francisco and a total set of 38 points.
My Early Lean: 49ers +10
This line is clearly an overreaction for a couple of different reason. The first being the results last week. The Seahawks earned an impressive 24-14 road win at Philadelphia, while the 49ers lost at Oakland 13-24 despite being an 8-point favorite in that game. So, the public perception is high on the Seahawks right now, while it’s very low on the 49ers. That has forced the oddsmakers to set this line higher than it should be knowing that the betting public is going to be quick to back the Seahawks.
The other reason for this big spread is that the 49ers just lost to the Seahawks 19-3 at home two weeks ago. Obviously, that was not a good showing for the 49ers, but they are going to be playing desperate football Sunday because they know they likely have to win out to make the playoffs. These rivalry games are always played closer to the vest, and the 49ers will be out for blood in this game.
The previous two meetings in this series were decided by a combined eight points. The 49ers won 19-17 at home in 2013, and they also hung tough in a 17-23 road loss to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game last year. They actually led that game most of the way before blowing it in the fourth quarter, so they have proven they can hang with the Seahawks in Seattle. They hold a 5-4 edge over the Seahawks in their last nine meetings.
With a defense as good as the one the 49ers feature, they have a chance to be competitive in every game they play. They rank 3rd in the league in total defense, giving up just 308.5 yards per game on the season. Yes, their offense has not been up to par, but that’s their defense is the reason why they have played in so many close games this year. Indeed, 10 of the 49ers’ 13 games this year have been decided by 11 points or less. They have only lost twice by more than 11 points all season.
This is actually a letdown spot for the Seahawks. They are coming off their huge road win over the Eagles last week, and they have Arizona on deck next week with first place in the NFC West likely on the line. They also already beat the 49ers by 16, so they are going to be in a tough spot here mentally. They won’t be as up for this game as they were the first time they played the 49ers, or as much as they were against the Eagles and will be next week against the Cardinals. It’s going to take 100% focus for the Seahawks to win this game by more than 10 points, and even that may not be enough against a 49ers team that will be out for revenge.
Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS since 1983. Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) – revenging a loss against opponent, off a road loss are 75-35 (67.6%) ATS over the past 10 seasons.
San Francisco is 8-0 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past two seasons.
San Francisco is 8-0 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past two seasons. The 49ers are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 games following an upset loss as a road favorite. San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a poor passing defense that allows a completion percentage of 61% or better. The 49ers are 26-11-3 ATS in their last 40 games following a ATS loss. San Francisco is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 road games.